What does good day-trading look like?

Week review 2011-01-21

What does good day-trading look like?

Several traders have emailed us in recent weeks asking to see something that conveys a “track record” in our market analysis. That kind of thing is difficult to show. As you know, the window of opportunity in trading can be very brief, and one must seize the opportunity when it presents itself.

That challenge led us to put together the attached picture of Trading da Numbas’ market analysis from last week, as it was offered IN THE MOMENT.

The S&P closed last week down 10 points from the previous week, but someone trading based . . . → Read More

July through December 2010: Did directional bias affect your trading?

20101217 july-dec 2010 ESZ chart

The period between December expiry and the year end offered an opportunity to review your overall trading approach. The second half of 2010 presented a remarkable advancement in equities markets, and nearly the entire period was punctuated with opinions and forecasts saying the market couldn’t go much higher. Looking back, did you trade with a bullish bias or with a bearish bias over the last six months? Was it difficult to “buy the dip” each time, because you thought the upward trend must be near its end?

For swing traders and day traders alike, it is crucial to your trading . . . → Read More

Support levels and timing on Thursday morning

Seeing that ES had reached 1278, the first identified support level below pivot, we alerted members of a possible change in direction for the next intraday swing. The upward move from 1278 provided five ES points.

TdN caught the morning high on ES

This morning in the chat room, we noted that a new ES high at 1274.50 coincided with a zero-test on the advance/decline index. This alerted us to a potential shorting opportunity. The market then produced a rapid decline of eight points.

Failure of yesterday’s ES low exposed 1258

This morning, we stated that bulls would want yesterday’s opening low to hold and 1270.50 to be recovered. Below 1263 exposed another level we identified, 1258, where we expected dip buyers to come in (and they did).

Art of catching turns, Part II: the inflection points.

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One reason many traders struggle is because they attempt to enter trades based on their own whims and ‘hunches’, which are derived from emotional factors rather than rigorous technical analysis. Our recent article emphasized how, even as contrarians, Trading da Numbas (TdN) focuses on following the trend until there are signs of exhaustion, sentiment extremes, and reactions to Fibonacci levels as well as other support and resistance that suggest a turn may be imminent.

This article describes a more subtle opportunity for the trader to watch for – inflection points, also known as “make-or-break” levels – which may produce either . . . → Read More

The Art of Following Trends and Catching Turns

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One common error many traders make is to fight the trend, thinking that by doing so they are being clever contrarians. This tendency is even more pronounced among those who are learning – but have not yet mastered — the Elliott Wave methodology. A little knowledge can indeed be a dangerous thing for those misapplying it.

At Trading da Numbas, we follow a rigorous Elliott Wave approach, but we don’t fight the trend. As they rightly say, “the trend is your friend.” This does not mean that we get ‘married’ to a position, but we respect the trend until it . . . → Read More

Finding good trades in a tricky market

Although the indexes are reaching areas of potential resistance, we noted at the end of Monday that we did not yet see an ending Elliott Wave pattern in the S&P. Instead, we were looking for a pullback to an area of previous support, to be followed by a higher high. This made for a nice intraday long trade on Tuesday that netted more than ten ES points (more than $500 per futures contract traded). We also noted in chat during the Tuesday morning session that the 1115-1116 ES area was likely to serve as support if retested later in the . . . → Read More

TdN was prepared for Wednesday’s short squeeze

Wednesday gave us a massive move upward in the equities indexes – a move that Trading da Numbers (TdN) members were prepared for well in advance. After noting on Tuesday that S&P / ES prices failed to make a lower low, and after seeing a potentially bullish Elliott Wave count based on reactions to our predicted support levels (shown in the attached chart that was provided to members on Tuesday), we warned members of the impending rally.

Anyone who was short from Tuesday was trapped as bulls pushed price above successive resistance levels in the 1050-1080 range. Moreover, today’s run . . . → Read More

June 17 — Early shorts got burned, but not us

The price action in the e-mini SP500 futures on June 16 began to selloff after the cash close. We at Trading da Numbas warned our membership to not get too excited about this and wait till today. This turned out to be good advice as any early short was likely to get stopped out in the rise of early morning globex trade today June 17th.

When the news hit at 8:30am this morning we were ready to capitalize on the opportunity and subsequently were warning of support into 11:00am eastern. Looking for shorting opportunity later in the day would be . . . → Read More

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