Trading da Numbas

A new look for us

Kurt — Sun, 20 May 2012 19:28:28 +0000

We are excited to announce that we are changing the name of our website to Trading On The Mark. If you haven’t already done so, please check out our new Facebook page (www.facebook.com/TradingOnTheMark). Clicking “like” will ensure that you get a notification when we post occasional comments there about intraday markets and trading opportunities.

Spain – Falling knife now but for how much longer?

phi — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 10:47:36 +0000

Since Spain has been in the news I thought I would have a quick look at a chart and note some first impressions.

This is the Dow Jones Spain Titans 30 index weekly.

My first thought after looking at this chart was that this is along the lines I thought the SPX would look like after the decline into 2009. Thank uncle Ben and the others at the Federal Reserve for that. Anyway, this market is a falling knife for now but that could start to ease up soon. Ideally this could use a small up or sideways and . . . → Read More

Video comments on bonds 2012-04-15

phi — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 16:21:14 +0000

My first Youtube video. Let us know if you like it and want to see more.

US 30 year bonds – 2012-04-14

phi — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:15:04 +0000

I haven’t been overly interested in US 30 year bonds for some time but it may be nearing time to put it back on the radar (we were all over low in February last year). In the grand scheme of things I have maintained the position that bonds are likely to stay higher longer then most can imagine. That said things are starting to get interesting.

First take a look at this chart of the 30yr futures continuous contract.

US 30yr bonds monthly futures continuous contract

We all know that bonds have been in a monster uptrend for many . . . → Read More

Bradley turns for rest 2012

phi — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 19:08:12 +0000

This weekend is one of the major Bradley siderograph turns for this year. How well does it predict turns in financial markets? Well enough that it sparked my interest in looking into astronomical event correlation to financial markets. The model can go cold for stretches then begin again to work quite well. The inflections are what matter, not the direction of the line, and allow for a few days +/- the inflection for a turn in the market. Will this one work? I don’t know. The market has chewed through other timing models for the last two months.

I have attached the . . . → Read More

Who cares if the market has hit bottom?

Kurt — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 20:54:26 +0000

Amid the turmoil in the markets this week, followers of TdN have done well — especially with intraday trading guided in our chat room. Today, we capitalized on the downtrend that continued from the overnight session, while noting that ES persistently found support around the S1 area (1120-21), so that was a good place to close short trades each time. Our analyst also noted that ES would have to climb above the 1128 area before it could be considered to have enough momentum for a rally. The market toyed with climbing over 1128 through the latter part of the morning . . . → Read More

Fortune favours the prepared trader – A good trade always starts yesterday

ewelin — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 23:51:55 +0000

The quote “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail” is attributed to many famous names including Benjamin Franklin and Henry Ford, and the truth of the statement has been recognized since even earlier times. For traders, approaching the market without the correct preparation is essentially preparing to fail, because it leaves them subject to bias and hesitation when they are presented with an unexpected development or a trading opportunity.

At Trading da Numbas (TdN), we follow the same ethos in our weekly and daily analysis. We show our subscribers how to prepare as well, so they are better . . . → Read More

Are these the swing trades you were looking for this week?

ewelin — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 22:46:46 +0000

You have probably already seen the charts showing the excellent guidance available for intraday trading at Trading da Numbas. (If not, see our recent publications here.)

But what does TdN offer for swing-traders?

Prior to the opening this week, we wrote that SPX needed to attract selling around 1,325 (and no higher than 1,327-1,329) for a bearish move to stay on plan. Moreover, we said “bears have no room for complacency here, and this week is going to be all about the prior low at 1,294.25 (ES).” We also pointed out two possible lower targets, to be considered after seeing . . . → Read More

How TdN caught Friday’s trades in both directions; plus a special 3-week trial offer for you.

ewelin — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 15:52:33 +0000

The recent volatility in the market has given opportunities in both directions to unbiased traders. Friday was a particularly good day for us at Trading da Numbas (TdN), and the chart below shows a play-by-play review of comments that were made by moderators in real time in the chat room. Ask yourself if your trading would improve with guidance like this.

In honor of an old friend, we are making a special offer available right now to anyone who wishes to try our service. Three weeks for $30, and all proceeds benefit the family of Dominick Mazza, . . . → Read More

New website design

ewelin — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 21:28:30 +0000

Greetings,

Today we pushed out our redesigned site. We’ve put a bright new face on our interface and streamlined the site to make it easier to use. In the coming weeks we’ll continue to add in more features to help improve our service. We hope you like the changes and thank you for using our services.

What does good day-trading look like?

ewelin — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 04:31:41 +0000

What does good day-trading look like?

Several traders have emailed us in recent weeks asking to see something that conveys a “track record” in our market analysis. That kind of thing is difficult to show. As you know, the window of opportunity in trading can be very brief, and one must seize the opportunity when it presents itself.

That challenge led us to put together the attached picture of Trading da Numbas’ market analysis from last week, as it was offered IN THE MOMENT.

The S&P closed last week down 10 points from the previous week, but someone trading based . . . → Read More

July through December 2010: Did directional bias affect your trading?

ewelin — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 01:47:30 +0000

The period between December expiry and the year end offered an opportunity to review your overall trading approach. The second half of 2010 presented a remarkable advancement in equities markets, and nearly the entire period was punctuated with opinions and forecasts saying the market couldn’t go much higher. Looking back, did you trade with a bullish bias or with a bearish bias over the last six months? Was it difficult to “buy the dip” each time, because you thought the upward trend must be near its end?

For swing traders and day traders alike, it is crucial to your trading . . . → Read More

Support levels and timing on Thursday morning

ewelin — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 19:05:17 +0000

Seeing that ES had reached 1278, the first identified support level below pivot, we alerted members of a possible change in direction for the next intraday swing. The upward move from 1278 provided five ES points.

TdN caught the morning high on ES

ewelin — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 17:08:22 +0000

This morning in the chat room, we noted that a new ES high at 1274.50 coincided with a zero-test on the advance/decline index. This alerted us to a potential shorting opportunity. The market then produced a rapid decline of eight points.

Failure of yesterday’s ES low exposed 1258

ewelin — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 21:16:48 +0000

This morning, we stated that bulls would want yesterday’s opening low to hold and 1270.50 to be recovered. Below 1263 exposed another level we identified, 1258, where we expected dip buyers to come in (and they did).

Art of catching turns, Part II: the inflection points.

ewelin — Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:51:36 +0000

One reason many traders struggle is because they attempt to enter trades based on their own whims and ‘hunches’, which are derived from emotional factors rather than rigorous technical analysis. Our recent article emphasized how, even as contrarians, Trading da Numbas (TdN) focuses on following the trend until there are signs of exhaustion, sentiment extremes, and reactions to Fibonacci levels as well as other support and resistance that suggest a turn may be imminent.

This article describes a more subtle opportunity for the trader to watch for – inflection points, also known as “make-or-break” levels – which may produce either . . . → Read More

The Art of Following Trends and Catching Turns

ewelin — Sat, 25 Sep 2010 12:53:20 +0000

One common error many traders make is to fight the trend, thinking that by doing so they are being clever contrarians. This tendency is even more pronounced among those who are learning – but have not yet mastered — the Elliott Wave methodology. A little knowledge can indeed be a dangerous thing for those misapplying it.

At Trading da Numbas, we follow a rigorous Elliott Wave approach, but we don’t fight the trend. As they rightly say, “the trend is your friend.” This does not mean that we get ‘married’ to a position, but we respect the trend until it . . . → Read More

Finding good trades in a tricky market

ewelin — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 21:56:40 +0000

Although the indexes are reaching areas of potential resistance, we noted at the end of Monday that we did not yet see an ending Elliott Wave pattern in the S&P. Instead, we were looking for a pullback to an area of previous support, to be followed by a higher high. This made for a nice intraday long trade on Tuesday that netted more than ten ES points (more than $500 per futures contract traded). We also noted in chat during the Tuesday morning session that the 1115-1116 ES area was likely to serve as support if retested later in the . . . → Read More

TdN was prepared for Wednesday’s short squeeze

ewelin — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:33:48 +0000

Wednesday gave us a massive move upward in the equities indexes – a move that Trading da Numbers (TdN) members were prepared for well in advance. After noting on Tuesday that S&P / ES prices failed to make a lower low, and after seeing a potentially bullish Elliott Wave count based on reactions to our predicted support levels (shown in the attached chart that was provided to members on Tuesday), we warned members of the impending rally.

Anyone who was short from Tuesday was trapped as bulls pushed price above successive resistance levels in the 1050-1080 range. Moreover, today’s run . . . → Read More

June 17 — Early shorts got burned, but not us

ewelin — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 22:58:11 +0000

The price action in the e-mini SP500 futures on June 16 began to selloff after the cash close. We at Trading da Numbas warned our membership to not get too excited about this and wait till today. This turned out to be good advice as any early short was likely to get stopped out in the rise of early morning globex trade today June 17th.

When the news hit at 8:30am this morning we were ready to capitalize on the opportunity and subsequently were warning of support into 11:00am eastern. Looking for shorting opportunity later in the day would be . . . → Read More

Monday July 12th

ewelin — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 17:54:47 +0000

Early morning had the Dow push into a 61.8% retracement of June 21st high to July 2nd low. This resulted in some brief selling that was unable to break a support range in the ES (E-mini SP500 futures) that was carved out in globex trade 1065.50.

At the time of this post, 1:45pm eastern, indexes are recovering from the morning weakness and approaching the overhead resist which is the aforementioned 62% retracement and the gap that was left in the NQ’s. There is still some opportunity for a bit more selling to come in later today as the lower highs . . . → Read More

Some good moves in equities and commodities

ewelin — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 22:53:41 +0000

This morning, the S&P opened nearly unchanged from yesterday, and price promptly rose to test the important pivot level of 1114, whereupon it was rejected soundly. It then underwent consolidation through the morning and lunch hour before breaking through the important 1105 level. As with other days, loss of support resulted in acceleration downward. Subsequent support levels were broken and became resistance, offering several entries for short positions to ride into market close.

In a different vein, the Market Trend Indicator for crude oil futures provided advance warning of another great shorting opportunity. In the charts below, see how the . . . → Read More

Were you expecting Tuesday’s sharp reversal?

ewelin — Tue, 18 May 2010 21:43:17 +0000

On Friday, (and in the weekend update), we identified 1148 es as key resistance above. On Monday and Tuesday, the market rallied and reached this level today before reversing sharply. Then it was only a matter of losing the 1139-40 area, and the downtrend resumed for sizable gains.

Our real-time guidance in the chat room further elaborated on these key levels:

09:32 AM [jayp] 1143.75 is weekly pivot and 1145.50 is R1 ; above 1148.20 is gap 09:36 AM [yahoogle] loss of 39-40 would suggest gap-up can’t be sustained . . . → Read More

Were you wary from the Market Low’s on ES today, Monday May 17th, 2010

ewelin — Mon, 17 May 2010 20:52:11 +0000

At Trading Da Numbas (TdN) our chat room and Intraday commentary forum members had been made aware from the Market Low’s on ES today (17th May 2010) to be wary and what to look out for. Below are some of the commentary provided in real-time.

jayp 12:02:19 Weekly S1 test jayp 12:07:11 Daily S2 is at 1,111.75 jayp 12:43:59 tested globex low as resistance jayp 12:44:39 above requires recovery of S1 and conversion as support jayp 13:26:20 dongelo yes . . . → Read More

Upside target met, market drops again

ewelin — Mon, 17 May 2010 17:53:55 +0000

From last Tuesday morning’s update:

Originally Posted by yahoogle If there is still a wave v to come, it could test the prior failure level around 1173; beyond that is critical resistance at 1177 and 1183.

And from Wednesday’s:

Originally Posted by yahoogle Bears will need a sustained gap-down, preferably, and continued lower highs and lower lows (…) past 1136, which was the breakout level, and key Fib area, then the downtrend could easily resume, leaving behind an upward AB12345 as a potential wave (2).

The above criteria were met by last week’s subsequent action. ES . . . → Read More