ewelin
May 02, 2010, 11:35 PM
Hello fellow traders,
With an eye on the high volatility in the markets in recent days, we at Trading da Numbas would like to take a moment to review some of our work with you of the last week. In a nutshell, traders who followed our observations profited from nearly every turn in the S&P, both upward and downward. Take a look at our play-by-play review. If you're not already a member, come try the service for a month and watch your trading take off.
On Monday we were watchful and wary. Coming into Monday April 26 we were cognizant of bigger picture resistance overhead but were waiting for a terminal pattern to form. In the chat room, our lead analyst made the following observations in real-time with a quick illustration of the Elliott Wave count on a 15 minute chart of the E-mini SP:
15922
9:48 AM [yahoogle] trying to dip below 13-14 immed support
9:48 AM [yahoogle] would be first indication of possible 5 up since 4/22
He then guided our members through the intraday movements and, in the afternoon, alerted members to the potential for a downward slide if price broke through support at 1211. This idea was drawn on the chart, shown below, and members were watching for the signal that the recent upward climb had turned. The first good opportunity to initiate shorts arose at this point.
15923
Tuesday was about seizing the opportunity. With the possible terminal pattern from Monday and with the gap down on Tuesday, we took a more bearish view of the intraday market movement as illustrated with the following chart.
When the S&P encountered resistance at the previous day's low, it provided a fantastic opening for shorts, with some members netting almost 20 ES points in a half-hour. (That's $1,000 per contract.) We spent the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday helping our members navigate the resistance and support levels, something that is done every day at TdN, while waiting for the Fed rate announcement.
On Thursday we were watching for the retracement of Tuesday's downward move to complete. Members started their trading day on Thursday with the following chart and analysis from our lead analyst before the market opened.
15924
ES gapped up on Wednesday, but it couldn't sustain a rally and eventually retested the lows, which held (our 1177 support level), before rallying again.
This suggests a possible ab12345 pattern coming off this week's low, which would normally be corrective. We should keep in mind that something more bullish can't yet be ruled out, but that would entail recovery of 1201, where some potential targets are, and 1207-10.
For now it would be wise to look for a completion of a corrective rally, and subsequent weakness. Without weakness, where support levels are lost and turned into resistance, we can't be certain the rally is done.
The 1195-97 wider resistance band was reached in globex. A reaction that would pull it back below 92-93 would suggest that it's having trouble sustaining the rally. Holding above 92-93 allows for a push higher.
Sentiment hasn't been as bearish during the latest decline, and bulls may again be hopeful of another dip. This means that the possibility of a 3rd wave down is very real. The Elliott Wave count itself allows for more downside (although it doesn't guarantee it). For now, the market is rallying and the rally should be respected while it stays above 1192-93.
The advice to look higher certainly was spot on and ES gapped up then ground higher into early afternoon. By mid afternoon, warnings of resistance were being shared, like this:
15925
If one were to add a regression channel from the first bar of the month to the present, then prices have come back to the center today.Friday rewarded our technical analysis with more profits. Here we're going to quote a gem from another one of our analysts from a post he made prior to the open, which he does everyday with detailed pivot, support, and resistance levels.
We are also too close from printing a monthly high to attract more investors in based on the weekly and monthly bars - some things to keep in mind for today.Indeed.
And to put a fork in it, here is the end result with a fork that was first shown on Thursday (at the high) and updated at the end of day.
15926
There is of course much more. More from analyst and more from our members. We all are traders looking for a trade. Was this past week eventful? Yes, in the sense there was nice range in the market, but no, in that this type of analysis happens every week at TdN.
Why don't you join us? A 1-month trial membership (http://www.tradingdanumbas.com/community/../?page=trial) is only $50 US. We would be delighted to have you on board.
With an eye on the high volatility in the markets in recent days, we at Trading da Numbas would like to take a moment to review some of our work with you of the last week. In a nutshell, traders who followed our observations profited from nearly every turn in the S&P, both upward and downward. Take a look at our play-by-play review. If you're not already a member, come try the service for a month and watch your trading take off.
On Monday we were watchful and wary. Coming into Monday April 26 we were cognizant of bigger picture resistance overhead but were waiting for a terminal pattern to form. In the chat room, our lead analyst made the following observations in real-time with a quick illustration of the Elliott Wave count on a 15 minute chart of the E-mini SP:
15922
9:48 AM [yahoogle] trying to dip below 13-14 immed support
9:48 AM [yahoogle] would be first indication of possible 5 up since 4/22
He then guided our members through the intraday movements and, in the afternoon, alerted members to the potential for a downward slide if price broke through support at 1211. This idea was drawn on the chart, shown below, and members were watching for the signal that the recent upward climb had turned. The first good opportunity to initiate shorts arose at this point.
15923
Tuesday was about seizing the opportunity. With the possible terminal pattern from Monday and with the gap down on Tuesday, we took a more bearish view of the intraday market movement as illustrated with the following chart.
When the S&P encountered resistance at the previous day's low, it provided a fantastic opening for shorts, with some members netting almost 20 ES points in a half-hour. (That's $1,000 per contract.) We spent the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday helping our members navigate the resistance and support levels, something that is done every day at TdN, while waiting for the Fed rate announcement.
On Thursday we were watching for the retracement of Tuesday's downward move to complete. Members started their trading day on Thursday with the following chart and analysis from our lead analyst before the market opened.
15924
ES gapped up on Wednesday, but it couldn't sustain a rally and eventually retested the lows, which held (our 1177 support level), before rallying again.
This suggests a possible ab12345 pattern coming off this week's low, which would normally be corrective. We should keep in mind that something more bullish can't yet be ruled out, but that would entail recovery of 1201, where some potential targets are, and 1207-10.
For now it would be wise to look for a completion of a corrective rally, and subsequent weakness. Without weakness, where support levels are lost and turned into resistance, we can't be certain the rally is done.
The 1195-97 wider resistance band was reached in globex. A reaction that would pull it back below 92-93 would suggest that it's having trouble sustaining the rally. Holding above 92-93 allows for a push higher.
Sentiment hasn't been as bearish during the latest decline, and bulls may again be hopeful of another dip. This means that the possibility of a 3rd wave down is very real. The Elliott Wave count itself allows for more downside (although it doesn't guarantee it). For now, the market is rallying and the rally should be respected while it stays above 1192-93.
The advice to look higher certainly was spot on and ES gapped up then ground higher into early afternoon. By mid afternoon, warnings of resistance were being shared, like this:
15925
If one were to add a regression channel from the first bar of the month to the present, then prices have come back to the center today.Friday rewarded our technical analysis with more profits. Here we're going to quote a gem from another one of our analysts from a post he made prior to the open, which he does everyday with detailed pivot, support, and resistance levels.
We are also too close from printing a monthly high to attract more investors in based on the weekly and monthly bars - some things to keep in mind for today.Indeed.
And to put a fork in it, here is the end result with a fork that was first shown on Thursday (at the high) and updated at the end of day.
15926
There is of course much more. More from analyst and more from our members. We all are traders looking for a trade. Was this past week eventful? Yes, in the sense there was nice range in the market, but no, in that this type of analysis happens every week at TdN.
Why don't you join us? A 1-month trial membership (http://www.tradingdanumbas.com/community/../?page=trial) is only $50 US. We would be delighted to have you on board.